A weather forecast is a very special kind of forecast. A weather forecast can tell you if it will be hot, warm, or cold throughout the day, if it will be over or under cloudy, and if it will be sunny or overcast.
These kinds of forecasts are very tricky to do for someone who has never done a weather forecast before. It takes time to learn how to do a good weather forecast!
There are many ways to learn how to do a good forecast. Some people use radio and television programs as sources of knowledge, while others go looking for information online. Either way, you can mix and match our of doors to get your knowledge into you!
This article will talk about some easy ways to create a forecasting time horizon that would typically be easiest to predict for the next hour or two.
One week
Most weeklong forecasts are for one week, two weeks, or even four weeks. This is due to the fact that most investors do not have control over their investments for the next two to four weeks.
While this is true for longer time horizons, it can be the difference between a good prediction and a bad prediction. For example, if you were able to forecast the beginning of August with confidence, you would be able to predict the end of August with confidence as well.
This is not said to make your time horizon look better than it really does, however. A one-week time horizon helps keep things more simple as opposed to having more concepts and terms being repeated over and over in detail.
Instead of having an investment plan that involves buying stocks for 24 months and then selling them at month’s end, investors who use the Week 1 buy/sell model can save money in this way.
One month
Most months have a month in which you must go about your business without major changes. This month can be either one week or one month!
This is the best time to do things that you have been putting off, or that you would prefer to do later. This is the ideal time to make purchases because you will have more in which to store and rotate through. All of these items can be enjoyed at a later date so there is no reason to make haste with these items.
During this time, explore new places, meet new people, and anything else that needs to be done gets done! It will likely be the least money spent of all times due to having nothing being rotated off of the monitors and phones during this period.
Do not spend money during this month unless it needs to be purchased. Do not go out unless you need something new or need ittrakted. This will help prevent unnecessary spending and preserve savings for future months.
One year
One year is the average time horizon for most financial forecasts. Two years is the average time horizon for more complex forecasts and five years or greater for major predictions.
At one year, you can make a strong guess at what future events will be like, but you cannot necessarily predict how they will turn out. Two years is a start to three-year cycles that are more established. Five years is a full 20-year cycle.
At five years, you can make a very confident prediction about what will happen in the future. At one year, you cannot make a strong prediction, but at two years, four years and five years, people have done very well with them.
The reason at two and five years there is such confidence in these forecasts is because they take into account more time that has passed since the event occurred.
Five years
Five years is the length of time it takes to full-fill a career goal. This can be years apart!
If you are in your late twenties or early thirtys, your best chance at a quick forecast could be in the field of employment. Then, you have the time to learn how to be an expert at what you do.
If you are in your early or mid-late stages of your career, then the length of time it takes to fully fulfill a career goal will be more likely to happen in just a few years.
For example, if you want to start a business, than starting a business now would be the easiest way to get started. Over the next year and a half, you can build your network, find clients, and plan out your first year!
This article talks about ways that less experienced forecasters can use data to their advantage.
Ten years
Five years
Two years
One year
The length of time it takes to earn a living in the current market is three to four years. During this time, you’ll need to invest in your portfolio with additional investments to maintain your position size.
During this time, you’ll need to buy and hold positions for long periods of time. You’ll have to be careful about how you reduce your position size because if you buy and sell too quickly, then the market will notice and reduce or eliminate your possibility of success.
When it comes to investing, there are no short cuts as everything takes its sweet time! It is important to be patient when it comes to investing so that you achieve success in the stock market.
Fifteen years
Historically, the average lifespan for a human is about 15 years. This includes both living and dead people.
15 years is a pretty long time to be alive. Even after 15 years, you can predict with certainty that you will still be wealthy!
This is not a universal truth, however. There are some places where the lifespan is longer than 20–30 years and money can’t be spent away. However, if you’re talking about retirement years, then money is easily spent!
The reason this timeframe sounds like such an easy prediction time horizon is that there aren’t many things that take longer than 15 years to become effective. Many things require more time before they can have an effect on your finances.
Many investment strategies don’t work in the short term and have no validity over the long run.
Twenty years
A twenty-year horizon is a fairly long time to hold a position in market prices. If you were buying stock at $10, your position would still be worth $20 by the time you want to cash out, because of the appreciation over that time.
This is why it is important to do your research before making any stock purchases. There are many companies that you can read about to gain an idea of what they do and how they operate, and if they are a good match for you.
Thirty years
Thirty years is a long time to hold a stock. If you were to buy this stock thirty years ago, and held it for another thirty years, you would pay a hefty premium over the current market price.
This is a period of time that many try to predict with a time horizon. If you were to buy the stock at its next swing upward, and hold it for another 30 years, you would have this period of time to play with.
There are many ways to look at these stocks, most of which are not profitable. However, if you can find a way to value these stocks without calculating their fair value,you can make some very money moving forward!
Some examples of this are with gold stocks, real estate investment trusts (REITs), or stockpicker styles.
