The tendency to perceive order in random events often leads to overestimating the value of things. This is most clearly seen in the way people value their own luck, or how lucky they are.
Many people believe that their good luck is due to their skill, knowledge, and expertise, but this is not the case. Luck has a much greater influence on people’s lives than they would like to admit.
For example, many people believe that they are a good driver because they have never had an accident. However, this might just be because they are driving at night when it is dark and therefore cannot see all of the obstacles.
This illustrates how people overestimate their own skill and downplay luck; only in this case, it is luck of the darkness that makes them seem like a good driver. Additionally, many people believe that things happen to them because of something that they did; however, more often than not it is simply luck that determines whether something happens or not.
The gambler’s fallacy
Gamblers tend to believe that past random events influence future random events. For example, many people believe that if a roulette wheel lands on red five times in a row, the sixth spin will land on black.
This belief is an example of the gambler’s fallacy, which leads people to think that there’s a tendency for the odds of a certain event to change after a series of similar events have occurred.
In this case, it’s believed that there’s a higher probability of black coming up after red has come up several times in a row. However, since roulette wheels are fixed with an even number of spots (and therefore an even number of possibilities for what can come up), the odds of any particular color coming up don’t change.
The gambler’s fallacy tends to lead to overestimating the value of short-term patterns in random events.
The belief in a God
The belief in a God or higher power often originates from a deep sense of order and structure in the world around us. Many people have observed how nature operates through cycles, seasons, and repetition.
These observations lead people to believe that there is a greater force at work regulating everything, making it coherent and predictable.
Indeed, many people have built entire religions around the notion that there is a God who orders and regulates everything. This belief can have powerful effects on people’s lives, from motivating them to be better persons to prompting them to sacrifice for what they believe is a higher cause.
The human desire for order
Our brains have a strong desire for order. As humans, we like things to make sense.
We like our lives to have structure and our environments to be orderly. This desire extends beyond our personal life into the way we work and the way we think about science.
As scientists, we look for laws of nature that govern the universe. As workers, we seek a career that is structured and has clear progression of steps to achieve excellence.
However, in both cases, this can lead to errors in thinking. When we assume that there is order in something when there is not, or when we seek structure where there is none, we are wronging the truth. This can have serious consequences.
Cognitive bias
A mental habit that most people have is to see patterns in random events or situations.
This is a natural by-product of how our brains process information. We learn through associations and correlations, which lead us to expect something based on past experiences.
For example, most people expect the sun to rise in the east every morning and set in the west every evening. This is due to the constant pattern of its movement over the years that we’ve observed.
However, this tendency to perceive order in random events can often lead to overestimating the value of things that have no true value. In other words, we think things are connected when they’re not.
We overvalue things because we associate them with other things or events that we do recognize as having value. For instance, some people believe in superstitions because they associate them with good luck.
Bias and luck
The idea that order exists in the world is a bias that people have. This belief is reinforced through our daily experiences and socialization.
For example, most people would say that there is a correlation between working hard and achieving success. This may be true in some cases, but not always.
However, because we perceive a pattern of success and hard work paying off, we tend to believe that it always pays off. This belief reinforces the bias that order exists in the world.
You may have experienced this yourself when you were younger. You probably thought that if you did certain things, you would get certain results. For example, you may have believed that if you worked hard at something, you would achieve the results you wanted.
However, as we grow up, we start to understand more about how life works and realize that there are times when things do not go our way.
Are we really experiencing the ‘hot hand’?
In the ‘hot hand’ paradigm, people believe that a person who has just successfully completed a task is more likely to successfully complete the next task than someone who has not just completed a task.
In other words, people think that success breeds success, that completing one thing leads to the ability to complete the next thing. This seems to be based on the idea that there is some sort of order or pattern that is being revealed.
This phenomenon has been studied in regard to luck, specifically in regard to whether or not someone who has just scored a point will score the next point. Researchers have found no evidence for the ‘hot hand’ in basketball scoring. People do not score more points in a row than they normally do.
The gambler’s fallacy and the ‘hot hand’
Another common misconception is the tendency to perceive order in random events.
For example, people often believe in ‘the law of averages’ – that if something unpredictable happens often enough, it will inevitably happen the other way at some point.
For instance, if it rains often enough, then there will come a day when it doesn’t rain. This idea is an example of the ‘average’ assumption.
Another common assumption is that if something good happens to someone or something frequently, then it will never happen the other way at some point. For instance, if someone wins money or prizes often, then there will come a day when they don’t win anything.
These assumptions are false – things that happen frequently may not happen the other way at some point.
Does a higher power exist?
The idea of God, or a higher power, is a prevalent notion in modern-day society. Many people believe in God, and some people believe God doesn’t exist.
Some people believe God exists, but believes we are fated to live our lives without any intervention from a higher power.
However you perceive God or a higher power, the belief in one often influences how you live your life and conduct yourself.
We often perceive order where there is none. This innate tendency to perceive order in random events often leads to overestimating the value of things that seem ordered.
For instance, when we encounter something that seems very orderly or structured, we may attribute this quality to something else — like a higher power. More specifically, when things seem extremely bad or good, we may attribute this to some kind of divine intervention.
